WP5: Recommendations for resilient and just bioeconomy transition paths (synthesis report)

The final work package will deliver a synthesis report that connects the methods, results and uncertainties from the different work packages towards recommendations for resilient and just bioeconomy transition paths conditioned to climate risk. The synthesis will be based on a robust quantitative analysis of climate hazard hotspots and economic structures in current and future EU-bioeconomies, as well as on empirical evidence for risk transmission channels of shocks in biomass supply in society. As a final deliverable, we will interpret our modeling results in the context of social-ecological resilience, sustainable development and sustainable finance, serving as recommendations for resilient and just bioeconomy transition paths in society.

Objectives:

  1. A quantitative analysis of socio-economic resilience, i.e. the socio-economic impact and recovery after a climate hazard shock in the spatial economic system of Austria;
  2. A broader social-ecological impact assessment, where the respective bioeconomy transition paths are assessed in terms of climate vulnerability, change in GHG emissions and interaction with selected SDGs;
  3. Identification of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies, including policy interventions, to improve social-ecological resilience of bioeconomy transition paths subject to climate extremes;
  4. Critical evaluation of applied methods, models and related uncertainties.

Method description

We apply a multi-criteria analysis decision framework that assesses interlinkages between SDGs and Bioeconomy indicators. We develop a unified SDG database and fill the FAO Bioeconomy Indicator framework with data from various sources. The methodological approach is a combination of recent publications and guidelines on SDGs implementation and Bioeconomy strategies. We apply a range of complementary qualitative and quantitative approaches within the assessment framework, including baseline assessment and benchmarking, system analysis and network analysis, statistical analysis and literature review, system target mapping, and policy gap analysis.

Expected key results

Our results will contribute to the debate on how bioeconomy implementation strategies in the EU benefit or hinder the fulfillment of the 2030 Agenda and where prioritization is needed. We will outline which SDGs and targets need be prioritized when implementing a bioeconomy according to EU policy concepts. Our results will highlight that sustainable bioeconomy can have positive linkages with may SDGs and achieving SDGs will also enable sustainable bioeconomy.

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