WP2: From (shocks in) biomass supply to supply chain risk in the EU bioeconomy

In the second work package, physical shocks in biomass harvests will be analysed in terms of (potential) price shocks and monetary trade flow disruptions in the EU bioeconomy. For this purpose, the project team constructs a time series of biobased input-output tables (IOT) for each EU member state between 1995 and 2015. In addition, since bioeconomy activities tend to differ with the socio-economic and biophysical context, IOTs will be constructed for the sub-national level in selected countries with varying climate regions (Austria, Germany, Spain). The results and deliverables will consist of a state of the art multiregional supply-use framework, as well as insights into climate hazard risk transmission channels in the EU bioeconomy.

Objectives:

  1. The construction of a time series of monetary supply-use tables for the EU member states with a high resolution of food and non-food biobased activities;
  2. The construction of sub-national supply-use tables for selected member states (Austria, Germany, Spain) in order to gain insights on the transmission of different climate extremes along multiple levels (regional, national, EU, global) in the EU bioeconomy;
  3. Linking the monetary flows in the EU bioeconomy to the biophysical basis of the bioeconomy in order to assess risk transmission channels of impacts of climate extremes on economic structures in the bioeconomy;
  4. Analysing potential impacts of different scenarios of climate extremes on EU bioeconomy activities in a global context.

Method description

This work package applies a quantitative method based on an integration of EUROSTAT national accounts, JRC’s Social Accounting Matrices for the EU Bioeconomy (BioSAMs) and the multiregional supply use tables (MRSUTs) of EXIOBASE. The resulting ‘BIO-MRSUT’ has an unprecedented resolution of 22 primary crops, 7 livestock activities, 11 food and 10 non-food biobased activities. The subnational SUTs of Austria, Germany and Spain will be constructed and integrated in the BIO-MRSUT. Finally, the monetary flows in the BIO-MRSUT will be connected to the physical multiregional SUT of biobased commodities (FABIO), thereby providing a major contribution to intersectoral bioeconomy modelling.

Expected key results

An impact analysis of climate hazard risk scenarios at the level of biobased supply chains, households and governments at the EU member state level.

Sectoral disaggregation in the BIOCLIMAPATHS BIO-MRSUT

Primary cropsLivestock productionFood & feed manufacturingNon-food biobased manufacturing
1. Paddy rice1. Bovine cattle, live1. Meat of bovine animals1. Textiles, wearing apparel and leather
2. Wheat2. Sheep, goats, horses, asses,…2. Meat of sheep, goats, equines2. Wood products
3. Barley3. Swine, live3. Meat of swine3. Paper products, publishing
4. Maize4. Poultry, live4. Meat of poultry4. Petroleum, coal
5. Other cereals5. Other animals5. Vegetable oils and fats5. Chemical products
6. Tomatoes6. Raw milk6. Dairy products6. Rubber and plastic products
7. Other vegetables7. Fishing7. Rice, milled or husked7. Biochemicals
8. Fruits and nuts8. Processed sugar8. Biogasoline
9. Rapeseeds9. Prepared animal feeds9. Biodiesel
10. Sunflower seed10. Other food products10. Other Liquid Biofuels
11. Soya beans11. Beverages
12. Olive for the oil industry
13. Other seeds for the oil industry
14. Sugar beet
15. Fibre plants
16. Potatoes
17. Live plants
18. Fodder crops
19. Tobacco
20. Other crops
21. Forestry
22. Wood plantations
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