WP2: From (shocks in) biomass supply to supply chain risk in the EU bioeconomy
In the second work package, physical shocks in biomass harvests will be analysed in terms of (potential) price shocks and monetary trade flow disruptions in the EU bioeconomy. For this purpose, the project team constructs a time series of biobased input-output tables (IOT) for each EU member state between 1995 and 2015. In addition, since bioeconomy activities tend to differ with the socio-economic and biophysical context, IOTs will be constructed for the sub-national level in selected countries with varying climate regions (Austria, Germany, Spain). The results and deliverables will consist of a state of the art multiregional supply-use framework, as well as insights into climate hazard risk transmission channels in the EU bioeconomy.
- The construction of a time series of monetary supply-use tables for the EU member states with a high resolution of food and non-food biobased activities;
- The construction of sub-national supply-use tables for selected member states (Austria, Germany, Spain) in order to gain insights on the transmission of different climate extremes along multiple levels (regional, national, EU, global) in the EU bioeconomy;
- Linking the monetary flows in the EU bioeconomy to the biophysical basis of the bioeconomy in order to assess risk transmission channels of impacts of climate extremes on economic structures in the bioeconomy;
- Analysing potential impacts of different scenarios of climate extremes on EU bioeconomy activities in a global context.
This work package applies a quantitative method based on an integration of EUROSTAT national accounts, JRC’s Social Accounting Matrices for the EU Bioeconomy (BioSAMs) and the multiregional supply use tables (MRSUTs) of EXIOBASE. The resulting ‘BIO-MRSUT’ has an unprecedented resolution of 22 primary crops, 7 livestock activities, 11 food and 10 non-food biobased activities. The subnational SUTs of Austria, Germany and Spain will be constructed and integrated in the BIO-MRSUT. Finally, the monetary flows in the BIO-MRSUT will be connected to the physical multiregional SUT of biobased commodities (FABIO), thereby providing a major contribution to intersectoral bioeconomy modelling.
Expected key results
An impact analysis of climate hazard risk scenarios at the level of biobased supply chains, households and governments at the EU member state level.
Sectoral disaggregation in the BIOCLIMAPATHS BIO-MRSUT
|Primary crops||Livestock production||Food & feed manufacturing||Non-food biobased manufacturing|
|1. Paddy rice||1. Bovine cattle, live||1. Meat of bovine animals||1. Textiles, wearing apparel and leather|
|2. Wheat||2. Sheep, goats, horses, asses,…||2. Meat of sheep, goats, equines||2. Wood products|
|3. Barley||3. Swine, live||3. Meat of swine||3. Paper products, publishing|
|4. Maize||4. Poultry, live||4. Meat of poultry||4. Petroleum, coal|
|5. Other cereals||5. Other animals||5. Vegetable oils and fats||5. Chemical products|
|6. Tomatoes||6. Raw milk||6. Dairy products||6. Rubber and plastic products|
|7. Other vegetables||7. Fishing||7. Rice, milled or husked||7. Biochemicals|
|8. Fruits and nuts||8. Processed sugar||8. Biogasoline|
|9. Rapeseeds||9. Prepared animal feeds||9. Biodiesel|
|10. Sunflower seed||10. Other food products||10. Other Liquid Biofuels|
|11. Soya beans||11. Beverages|
|12. Olive for the oil industry|
|13. Other seeds for the oil industry|
|14. Sugar beet|
|15. Fibre plants|
|17. Live plants|
|18. Fodder crops|
|20. Other crops|
|22. Wood plantations|