WP4: Simulating bioeconomy transition paths under scenarios of climate extremes

The economic structures of the current Austrian bioeconomy (result from WP3) will serve as the starting point of the modeling of potential bioeconomy transition paths towards regional, interregional, and global bioeconomy structures. Future bioeconomies will be subjected to different scenarios of climate extremes in the EU (result from WP1). The resulting impact matrix (deliverable) will be discussed with bioeconomy stakeholders and, in a knowledge co-creation process, potential adaptation and mitigation measures will be identified that can support resilient and just bioeconomy transitions in society.

Objectives:

  1. Knowledge co-creation with stakeholders: defining plausible biobased futures for Austria;
  2. Analysing supply chain impacts and distributive effects under different scenarios of climate extremes.

Method description

WP4 provides a quantitative assessment of biobased scenarios, supported by the hybrid SUT-ABM developed in WP3. Scenarios simulation is supported by a mixed quali-quantitative approach that combines insights from existing research on bioeconomy scenarios for Austria, stakeholders’ consultations and knowledge co-creation, and the modeling of climate hazard impacts via the hybrid SUT-ABM (developed in work package 3). The modeling results will be presented in stakeholder focus groups, where impacts of climate extremes will be discussed in relation to vulnerabilities in (biobased) societies.

Expected key results

For the first time, it will be possible to quantitatively assess and compare the socio-economic implications, as well as potential trade-offs, of EU biobased transition scenarios under climate hazard risk, focusing on Austria.

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