WP 3: From climate hazard related supply chain risk to impacts in society (case study country Austria)
In this work package, climate hazard impacts will be assessed along the full logical chain of events in the bioeconomy: climate hazard – harvest loss – supply chain impact – distributive impacts in society. To this end, an agent-based model (ABM, including farms, firms and all households in case study country Austria) will be constructed and connected to regional (sub-national) supply-use tables (SUT). Results include an assessment of the impacts of spatially explicit climate hazards through bioeconomy activities on to the household, government and financial agents in Austrian regions, connected to the global trade network of the EU bioeconomy. The development of the SUT-ABM and the multi-level risk assessment will be an important deliverable of the project.
- Constructing a hybrid SUT-ABM model with a spatial focus on the bioeconomy;
- Connecting the bioeconomy agents in Austria to the BIO-MRSUT through trade links;
- Analysing impacts of climate extremes on farms, firms, and households in Austria, as well as in terms of global spillover effects.
BIOCLIMAPATHS will develop an hybrid Input-Output – Agent Based Model (ABM). It integrates regional biobased accounting (i.e. the sub-national supply-use tables developed in WP2) into the ABM with a spatial representation of agents (farms, firms, households). Land resources at the NUTS 3 level will be functionally categorised and allocated to the agents. This will progress the scientific state-of the art in coupling the socio-economic and the biophysical systems, and allow the cross-sectoral modelling of biophysical impacts to bioeconomy value chains and the socio-economic system through the farm link.
Expected key results
The detailed structure of the hybrid BIO-ABM offers a unique platform to estimate socio-economic and distributive impacts of regional climate hazards.